2017-18 - A New English Attendance Record?
By the end of this season the average
attendance for the top flight in England will be the second or third highest in
its 130-years history. It will be a new record high in the Premier League era.
That’s a pretty bald
statement that will leave me looking foolish if it doesn’t happen. But it will. I
doubt it will be the best. It won’t be fourth or lower. It will be either
second or third. Bank on it. Guaranteed. 100%. Well, almost…………
How can I make this
claim so confidently? Let’s look at the
targets first. The highest average ever recorded was 38,776 in 1948-49 with
37,400 the following season next best. Third highest came as recently
as 2013-14 when the Premier League averaged 36,660.
Last season the
average was 35,822 and the make-up of the division and stadia capacities
ensures the figure will be higher this season.
As I say in my book' CROWDED HOUSES' - the English Premier League now fills well over 95% of
available seats each and every match day. Only two avenues lie open to it with
regard to increasing attendances. One is greater capacity through stadium
modernisation or new build, and the other is dependent on promoted teams
drawing bigger gates than the clubs they replace.
That’s why there has
been very little rise or fall in the average in recent times. In the past
fifteen seasons the lowest average has been 34,151 – in 2010-11 – just 2,509
below the highest. This consistency can be further demonstrated by comparing
levels with those of the immediate post-war boom. Although the highs back then
have still to be equalled the frequency of big crowds has been easily
surpassed. Top flight gates averaged over 30,000 for the first ten post-war
seasons. After dropping below that mark in 1956-57 they recovered to hit
30,000+ for the next three seasons. They
didn’t reach that level again until England’s World Cup win in 1966 sparked off
another boom, with attendances averaging 30,000 or more for seven consecutive
seasons from 1966-1973. From then until 1998 the 30,000 mark remained out of
reach – often considerably so.
My recently published history of
European football attendances - click to enlarge
By the end of 1997-98,
league football had been played in England for 110 years. Excluding wartime
that was 99 seasons. In just twenty of them the top division average hit 30,000 or
better.
2017-18 will see that number doubled. This will
be the twentieth season in succession that average gates have been over 30,000.
That is a stark
indication of how long the Premier League has been ‘booming’ and how well it
compares with what has gone before. There is one caveat and that is current
seasons consist of 380 games played by twenty clubs. For much of the 20th
century it was 462 matches and twenty-two clubs. The greater the number of both
games and clubs the more difficult it becomes to achieve a high average as –
usually, though not always – the ‘extra’ clubs are not among the best
supported.
But let’s return to
2017-18 and see what’s in store in the coming months. Why am I so sure my prediction is accurate?
Accepting that most clubs will draw around the same as last season (which given
capacity occupancy it’s reasonable to do) it’s necessary to compare promoted
and relegated clubs. Sunderland were best supported of those going down with an
average of 41,787. Middlesbrough drew 30,449 and Hull City 20,761. Promoted
Brighton were watched by an average of 27,996 and that’s not going to fall in
the big league. True, there’s little room for expansion. Their ground holds a
little less than 31,000. But it’s a fair bet that their average will be in the
same territory as Middlesbrough’s.
Huddersfield Town, with an average of 20,343 and a stadium that holds
almost 25,000 are in much the same boat and their Premier League average will
be pretty close to Hull City’s.
It’s the North-East
that will provide the first big boost to gates. Newcastle United averaged
51,106 winning promotion, just over 1,000 below capacity. Again, there’s little
room to expand but, crucially, they drew almost 10,000 more per match than
Sunderland. Over a season that’s 190,000 more spectators and by itself would
add 500 to the average crowd for the division. Even if the three promoted sides
did no more than replicate their Championship figures they would still add over
300 to the average Premier League crowd.
And that’s the worst
case scenario.
So the difference
between promoted and relegated sides means the average would lie somewhere
between 300-500 below the 2013-14 figure.
There’s precious
little to be added via stadium expansion this season so even with the increase
Newcastle will bring, that third place still looks out of sight. Here’s where
capacity comes into play for, as the song says, Spurs are on their way to
Wembley. Restrictions at White Hart Lane in 2016-17 meant Tottenham averaged
just 31,639. For their Wembley season they have made 40,000 season tickets
available (this number has been capped so as to ensure all season book holders
will be able to guarantee a seat at the new White Hart Lane) and they have sold
all 40,000.
Before a single person
other than a season ticket holder walks into Wembley this season that’s almost
160,000 more over the course of the campaign. That adds in excess of a further
400 to the division’s average.
That now takes us – in
the worst case scenario – to around 100 below the 2013-14 third highest ever.
We haven’t yet even
considered away supporters at Spurs home games. To make up that 100 overall
‘shortfall’ away fans need to average 2,000 at Spurs matches. An average of
anything over 42,000 at Tottenham home games would mean 2013-14’s third highest
ever would be surpassed.
That’s predicated on
promoted teams doing no better than last season and the rest of the division
drawing the same as before. Without making a prediction as to what Tottenham’s
actual average is going to be (they haven’t played a single match there at the
time of writing), it’s a safe bet that it will be significantly in excess of
42,000 and would easily accommodate any surprise drop elsewhere.
That 2017-18 will
exceed 2013-14 is - as I hope I have demonstrated
– not in any doubt.
Spurs are on their way to Wembley
What about second
place? Is that achievable? Undoubtedly yes? Will it happen? I think so but
there’s no guarantee. To match the 1949-50 figure of 37,400 there needs to be
an increase in Premier League crowds of 600,000. Again, taking a worse case
scenario with regard to the promoted clubs they will still add 120,000 to last
season’s total. That leaves a difference
of 480,000 for Spurs to make up, all else being equal. An average of 57,000
would do it. If there was a fall elsewhere, an average of 60,000 should
compensate and 65,000 would do it for certain.
Will Spurs draw those
sorts of numbers to Wembley? Not just once or twice for showpiece games but
match after match?
In their favour is the
example of West Ham United. A club that had never averaged 35,000 in their
history drew a shade under 57,000 after moving to the Olympic Stadium. No
disrespect intended to the Hammers but Spurs have a much greater history of
large crowds and have averaged over 50,000 several times in the past. In four UEFA games at Wembley last season,
two were over 85,000, a third hit 80,000 and the lowest of all still drew
62,000.
Factor in the larger
number of tickets available for other London clubs visiting – Arsenal, Chelsea, West Ham
and Palace will all bring substantial numbers of supporters – and the sheer
novelty of seeing their team play at Wembley for fans of many clubs elsewhere
in the country and it’s easy to see Tottenham drawing an average in excess of
every club in the league bar Man Utd.
But it must remain
open to question. Just being in Europe allied to undoubtedly greater live TV
coverage casts some doubt on their chances as few matches will be played on
Saturdays at 3pm and many fans will face long journeys for evening or noon
kick-offs on dates yet to be announced.
Attendances at the
first three or four Wembley matches should provide the answer. My feeling is
that the attractions of Wembley as a league venue will outweigh the
difficulties involved and the 37,400 mark will be breached. But whereas I am
100% certain 2013-14 will be surpassed I’d reduce that to around 65% for
overcoming 1949-50.
That leaves just one
more target – that all-time record average of 38,776 in 1948-49. Can it be
beaten? Could it happen this season? My answers are yes and possible but highly
unlikely respectively.
To take the second
part first. To breach the all-time record requires in excess of well over a
million more spectators this season than last. Allowing this time for the best
case scenario of the promoted clubs adding 200,000 to the total it leaves over
900,000 more to watch Spurs – if numbers are static elsewhere. To put it in
stark terms Spurs need to draw over 150% more in 2017-18 than they did in
2016-17. It would take an average of
around 78,000 for the record to have any chance of being threatened. That’s
higher than any English club has ever achieved in 130 years of league football.
Yet it is only slightly more than Man Utd draw week in week out and is a
figure they would surely beat had they the capacity to do so. So it is undoubtedly
possible. Looking at the average scenario of the promoted teams adding
‘only’ 150,000 in total it becomes much harder. It means Spurs would have to
draw almost one million more on their own – or an average close to 83,000.
That’s more than watch the best supported club
in the world – Borussia Dortmund – and to my thinking at least is a step too
far.
The record CAN be beaten though. Of that I am
certain. It needs the ‘right’ promotions and relegations to do it. Let’s take the
150,000 I’m sure the promoted teams will add this season. Then allocate Spurs
the same numbers as Arsenal currently draw when their new stadium is complete.
That would leave just under 450,000 more spectators to be added to create a new
record. Aston Villa being promoted and Bournemouth relegated would match that
figure almost exactly, based on Villa’s previous attendances in the Premier
League.
If you want to
guarantee it then have Liverpool or Everton move into a larger stadium. Or see
Sunderland come back up with Villa while Burnley or Swansea join Bournemouth at
the bottom. For added security relegate both of those clubs along with
Bournemouth and promote any one of a dozen other Championship sides capable of
drawing 25,000 or more in the Premier League.
In short, a record
which has stood for almost seventy years and which has long been regarded as
set in perpetuity can be broken. All it needs is the relegation of a couple of
clubs with the smallest support at the same time as the promotion of two –
possibly just one – clubs with a big following.
It may not even need that.
Theoretically it could even happen this season – but that would mean
Spurs leaping not just from the middle of the English rankings to the top but
to become the best supported team in the world. I doubt it will happen this
term.
Bournemouth’s Dean Court – by far
the smallest Premier League ground
I was going to leave
it there but I think I should clarify what I referred to earlier regarding the
difference in club numbers and matches played in the 1940s as opposed to now.
In ‘CROWDED HOUSES’ I compared the 2013-14 figure with the previous third best of
36,217 in 1947-48. To equalise matters I deducted the attendance figures both
home and away of the two relegated sides in that season so as to compare like
with like. That led to the 1947-48 figure rising by just over 2,000 per game.
To genuinely top the existing record would require at least a further 750,000
spectators over the season. The law of diminishing returns regarding promoted
and relegated sides makes this highly unlikely. The chances of having a
sufficiently high number of clubs with the largest grounds being in the Premier
League at the same time are remote. In 2017-18 nine of the twenty largest grounds in England
belong to clubs not currently in the Premier League.
